Bologna 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Cagliari encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bologna have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cagliari's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Bologna's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bologna edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2024, ended Bologna 2–0 Cagliari — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Cagliari 53%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.72 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.275 / defence 0.967 | Cagliari attack 0.832 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.204. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.275 — their 1.72 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bologna's last 64 games and Cagliari's last 64.

Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 20%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.86 | Draw 3.74 | Cagliari 5.09. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 50% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games).

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