Atalanta 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atalanta face Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 6W 3D 1L at Gewiss Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Atalanta. A 1.00 PPG lead over Venezia (1.70 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atalanta have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Atalanta are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Atalanta and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 55% versus Venezia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 64% | Venezia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.16 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.234 / defence 1.019 | Venezia attack 0.758 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.217. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Atalanta games / 26 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Venezia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 80% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Atalanta 2.16 / Venezia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.234 / def 1.019 | Venezia attack 0.758 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Venezia xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Venezia kick off?
Atalanta vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Atalanta vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Venezia part of?
Atalanta vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 64% chance of winning, Venezia a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Atalanta and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Atalanta 3W | Draws 0 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Venezia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.23) and Venezia's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.76x) against Atalanta's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.65
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.10
0.94
Venezia xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
2%
60.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.94 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta's recent record stands at 37W 12D 15L from 64 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 25L across 64 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 20W 5D 6L from 31 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.39 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 37W 12D 15L in their last 64 games (1.92 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 14D 25L in their last 64 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Venezia away?
Atalanta's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.10 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Venezia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Atalanta
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Atalanta 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Venezia?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 61%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Atalanta and 64% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Venezia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Atalanta's games and 52% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Atalanta's matches and 64% of Venezia's.
Do Atalanta and Venezia tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.16 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.23 / defence 1.02 against Venezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 64% | Draw 22% | Venezia 14%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 64%, Venezia 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.