Bologna vs Atalanta – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Atalanta travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 January 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atalanta — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.40 PPG, Atalanta 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta 5, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Atalanta 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Atalanta 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.48 xG and Atalanta 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.851 / defence 1.036 | Atalanta attack 0.991 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Data: 48 Bologna games / 47 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 38%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Atalanta 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Atalanta 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 37% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Bologna 1.48 / Atalanta 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.851 / def 1.036 | Atalanta attack 0.991 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Atalanta xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Atalanta kick off?
Bologna vs Atalanta is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 January 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Atalanta part of?
Bologna vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 37% chance of winning, Atalanta a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bologna and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 1 | Atalanta 5W.
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Atalanta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.85x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.10
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.98
1.50
Atalanta xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.07
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bologna and 1.50 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 10D 17L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.49 PPG from 47 outings (18W 16D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.49 PPG, Atalanta on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 6D 11L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.49 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.17 points per game from 23 outings (6W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.43 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 10D 17L in their last 47 games (1.49 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 18W 16D 13L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.04 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Atalanta have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Atalanta 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 44% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 65% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 44% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Atalanta tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.