Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium.
Bohemians (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bohemians have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shamrock Rovers's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Bohemians hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2025, ended 0–2 with Bohemians winning.
It is worth noting that Bohemians have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Bohemians 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Bohemians 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.254 / defence 0.794 | Bohemians attack 0.972 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.035. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.794 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Shamrock Rovers games / 67 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 5.00. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Bohemians lead the H2H ledger, but Shamrock Rovers carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.42 / Bohemians 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.254 / def 0.794 | Bohemians attack 0.972 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Bohemians xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 51% chance of winning, Bohemians a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Record (6 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 4W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.97x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.40
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.22
0.80
Bohemians xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.80 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 34W 19D 13L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 25W 16D 25L from 66 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (19W 9D 4L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 10D 12L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.18 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 34W 19D 13L in their last 66 games (1.83 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 25W 16D 25L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Bohemians away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.06 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
5
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, Bohemians have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Bohemians 1-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Bohemians 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 41% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians in 31%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 41% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Bohemians 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG and Bohemians 0.80 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.25 / defence 0.79 against Bohemians attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 51% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Bohemians 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.