Longford Town 0-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Longford Town vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Longford Town welcome Derry City to Bishopsgate Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 31 July 2021 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Longford Town have gone 0W 4D 6L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Longford Town have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derry City stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derry City are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Longford Town, 0 for Derry City and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2021, ended Longford Town 1–1 Derry City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Longford Town in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Derry City in-play and half-time data (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 52% versus Derry City 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Longford Town 38% | Derry City 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.74 xG and Derry City 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.656 / defence 1.320 | Derry City attack 0.807 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.224. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.320 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 21 games and Derry City's last 21.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 4.70 | Draw 3.47 | Derry City 2.00. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Longford Town's last 10 home games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Longford Town 40% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 22 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Longford Town 0.74 / Derry City 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.656 / def 1.320 | Derry City attack 0.807 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Derry City (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Derry City xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Derry City kick off?
Longford Town vs Derry City kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Longford Town 0 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Longford Town vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Derry City part of?
Longford Town vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 22) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 21% chance of winning, Derry City a 50% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Longford Town and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Longford Town vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 21 games and Derry City's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
21%
4.70
29%
3.47
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.05
1.30
Derry City xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
6%
17.33
24%
4.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 16.9 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.30 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Longford Town have picked up 0.52 PPG on a 1W 8D 12L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Longford Town.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Longford Town have posted 0.30 PPG from their last 10 home games (0W 3D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.19 PPG overall record — Derry City travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Longford Town are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.10 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 67%.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Blended
Derry City
Blended
Longford Town (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Longford Town and Derry City in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 1W 8D 12L in their last 21 games (0.52 PPG), while Derry City have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.30 PPG; Derry City away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Derry City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Longford Town's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Longford Town
1
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Derry City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 1, Derry City have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2021: Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 40%, Derry City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Longford Town) and 40% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 60% of games; Derry City in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Longford Town vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Longford Town and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Longford Town's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Longford Town and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Longford Town's recent games and 40% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Derry City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Longford Town's recent matches and 70% of Derry City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Longford Town 0-2 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.74 xG and Derry City 1.30 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.66 / defence 1.32 against Derry City attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 21% | Draw 29% | Derry City 50%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 38%, Derry City 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.