Sligo Rovers 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 1D 4L at The Showgrounds — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Showgrounds. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sligo Rovers, 1.10 for Dundalk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 40% versus Dundalk 68%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 28% | Dundalk 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.30 xG and Dundalk 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.987 / defence 0.929 | Dundalk attack 0.715 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.189. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Sligo Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Sligo Rovers games / 25 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 4.35. Sligo Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 30% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.30 / Dundalk 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.987 / def 0.929 | Dundalk attack 0.715 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Dundalk xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 14 September 2021 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.99x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.71x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.48
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.09
0.79
Dundalk xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
6%
16.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.79 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 12W 6D 7L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dundalk's form line: 7W 7D 11L from 25 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sligo Rovers are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.12 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 68%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.50 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dundalk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 42%, Dundalk 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sligo Rovers) and 42% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 58% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 42% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sligo Rovers edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers beat Dundalk 2-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.30 xG and Dundalk 0.79 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Dundalk attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 49% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 28%, Dundalk 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dundalk's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.