PAS Giannina 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Atromitos at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face Atromitos.

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Analysis

Atromitos make the trip to Stadio Zosimades to face PAS Giannina in Super League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

PAS Giannina (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PAS Giannina at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Atromitos have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Atromitos have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Atromitos edge it 1 wins to 0, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended PAS Giannina 1–1 Atromitos — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 57% versus Atromitos 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 50% | Atromitos 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAS Giannina surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Atromitos have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.13 xG and Atromitos 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.668 / defence 1.151 | Atromitos attack 0.776 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. PAS Giannina's attack rating of 0.668 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 51 games and Atromitos's last 51.

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 32% | Draw 33% | Atromitos 35%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 3.14 | Draw 3.06 | Atromitos 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 50% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 60% (last 10 away games).

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