OFI 2-2 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
OFI welcome Panathinaikos to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
OFI's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Panathinaikos have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Panathinaikos's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Panathinaikos — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for OFI, 2 for Panathinaikos and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended OFI 0–4 Panathinaikos — a Panathinaikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Panathinaikos in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 47% versus Panathinaikos 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 45% | Panathinaikos 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.14 xG and Panathinaikos 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.881 / defence 0.877 | Panathinaikos attack 1.258 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.347. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack rating of 1.258, which lifts their away xG to 1.49. Data: built from OFI's last 51 games and Panathinaikos's last 51.
Result probabilities: OFI 27% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 43%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.71 | Draw 3.33 | Panathinaikos 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Panathinaikos are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | Panathinaikos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 27% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG OFI 1.14 / Panathinaikos 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.881 / def 0.877 | Panathinaikos attack 1.258 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Panathinaikos FAQs
What time does OFI vs Panathinaikos kick off?
OFI vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
OFI 2 - 2 Panathinaikos.
Where is OFI vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Panathinaikos part of?
OFI vs Panathinaikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 26) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 27% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both OFI and Panathinaikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates OFI's attack at 0.88x the league average against Panathinaikos's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panathinaikos's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 51 games and Panathinaikos's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
27%
3.71
30%
3.33
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
OFI xG
Total xG
2.63
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
16.37
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Panathinaikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for OFI and 1.49 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
OFI's recent record stands at 15W 20D 23L from 58 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 36W 14D 8L across 58 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over OFI heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, OFI have managed 8W 11D 10L from their last 29 home games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 18W 5D 6L across their last 29 away games, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.74 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Panathinaikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ OFI vs Panathinaikos Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 15W 20D 23L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 36W 14D 8L in their last 58 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.21 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 2.03 PPG.
Have OFI or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 4 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Panathinaikos have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Dec 2023, when Panathinaikos won Panathinaikos 4-0 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Panathinaikos specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
3
Draws
6
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Panathinaikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Panathinaikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 March 2026: Panathinaikos 4-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Panathinaikos see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 48%, Panathinaikos 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (OFI) and 41% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos in 48%; OFI have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Panathinaikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Panathinaikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of OFI's recent matches and 38% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Panathinaikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of OFI's recent games and 41% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Panathinaikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of OFI's recent matches and 54% of Panathinaikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OFI and Panathinaikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 26, as OFI and Panathinaikos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.14 xG and Panathinaikos 1.49 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Panathinaikos attack 1.26 / defence 0.81, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 27% | Draw 30% | Panathinaikos 43%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 45%, Panathinaikos 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.