Panetolikos 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panetolikos face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Aris Thessalonikis, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 0–4 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 46% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.99 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.938 / defence 0.842 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.004 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.181. Data: 36 Panetolikos games / 36 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 33% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 34% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 33% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Panetolikos 0.99 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.938 / def 0.842 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.004 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panetolikos 2 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 33% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (6 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 5W.
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.00x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.01
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.99
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.00 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panetolikos come into this having played 43 games, going 13W 12D 18L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aris Thessalonikis sit at 1.70 PPG from 43 outings (21W 10D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Panetolikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Panetolikos's home form reads 8W 4D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Aris Thessalonikis have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Panetolikos are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.44 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 21W 10D 12L in their last 43 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Aris Thessalonikis won 5-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
0
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Panetolikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Panetolikos) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Panetolikos) and 29% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 48%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 33% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Panetolikos's recent games and 29% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.99 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.00 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panetolikos beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.94 / defence 0.84 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 33% | Draw 33% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Panetolikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panetolikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.