Panathinaikos 1-1 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos meet at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 August 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panathinaikos have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Panathinaikos haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Panathinaikos have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Levadiakos are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Panathinaikos are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
The historical record gives Panathinaikos a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 53% versus Levadiakos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 41% | Levadiakos 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.16 xG and Levadiakos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.070 / defence 0.966 | Levadiakos attack 1.017 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 0.982. Data: 26 Panathinaikos games / 27 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Levadiakos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Panathinaikos dominate the H2H record, yet Levadiakos are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levadiakos (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 60% | Levadiakos 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Panathinaikos 1.16 / Levadiakos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.070 / def 0.966 | Levadiakos attack 1.017 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.103 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Levadiakos xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Levadiakos.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 40% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panathinaikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): Panathinaikos 4W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panathinaikos's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.02x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (26/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.38
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.12
0.96
Levadiakos xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.96 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panathinaikos come into this having played 32 games, going 17W 8D 7L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. Panathinaikos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Panathinaikos against 1.56 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Panathinaikos's home form reads 11W 3D 2L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Panathinaikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.62 points per game from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.56 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Pre-Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 17W 8D 7L in their last 32 games (1.84 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.25 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Panathinaikos have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 1-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
1
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
From 7 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, Levadiakos have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Levadiakos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 50%, Levadiakos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panathinaikos) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Levadiakos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 56% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos and Levadiakos finished level at 1-1 at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.16 xG and Levadiakos 0.96 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Levadiakos attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 26/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 40% | Draw 30% | Levadiakos 30%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 41%, Levadiakos 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.84 PPG, Levadiakos 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.