Levadiakos 3-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 10 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 May 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Levadias this season.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Volos NFC away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 2.00 PPG, Volos NFC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Levadiakos, 3 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Volos NFC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 54% versus Volos NFC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 51% | Volos NFC 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.30 xG and Volos NFC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.920 / defence 1.179 | Volos NFC attack 0.861 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Data: 26 Levadiakos games / 52 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 41% | Draw 27% | Volos NFC 32%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Volos NFC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Levadiakos at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Levadiakos 50% | Volos NFC 50%.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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