Levadiakos 3-2 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levadiakos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Levadias to take on Levadiakos. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 November 2024, 14:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League 1 games this season, Levadiakos have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Levadias, Levadiakos have gone 0W 3D 2L this season (5 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Volos NFC away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levadiakos 0.60 PPG, Volos NFC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Levadiakos, 2 for Volos NFC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Volos NFC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Levadiakos in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 60% versus Volos NFC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Levadiakos 50% | Volos NFC 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 0.74 xG and Volos NFC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.736 / defence 1.236 | Volos NFC attack 0.967 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.216. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Levadiakos games / 36 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Levadiakos 18% | Draw 28% | Volos NFC 53%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Volos NFC 1.89. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | Volos NFC 30% BTTS from recent games.

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