Lamia 1-2 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lamia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Apollon Smirnis travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Apollon Smirnis have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Apollon Smirnis's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Lamia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.80 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lamia, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Lamia in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Apollon Smirnis in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 50% versus Apollon Smirnis 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 50% | Apollon Smirnis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.57 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.977 / defence 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.462 / defence 1.632. League average goals — home 0.984 / away 1.109. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.632 — this is suppressing Lamia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Lamia games / 22 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamia 58% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Apollon Smirnis 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamia (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamia 70% | Apollon Smirnis 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamia 58% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Lamia 1.57 / Apollon Smirnis 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Lamia attack 0.977 / def 1.380 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.462 / def 1.632 | league avg home 0.984 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Lamia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Lamia xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Apollon Smirnis xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What was the final score in Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis?
Lamia 1 - 2 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias.
What competition is Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives Lamia a 58% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lamia and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Apollon Smirnis?
Record (1 meetings): Lamia 0W | Draws 1 | Apollon Smirnis 0W.
What form are Lamia and Apollon Smirnis in?
Lamia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lamia's attack at 0.98x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus Lamia's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
58%
1.72
25%
3.96
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Lamia xG
Total xG
2.27
0.71
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
3%
28.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lamia and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Lamia and 0.71 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamia's recent record stands at 4W 6D 12L from 22 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Apollon Smirnis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 14L across 22 games — 0.45 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Apollon Smirnis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamia on 0.82 PPG, Apollon Smirnis on 0.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamia have managed 2W 3D 5L from 10 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Apollon Smirnis's away record stands at 0W 1D 9L across 10 trips, a 0.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamia are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.32 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 23%.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamia
Blended
Apollon Smirnis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamia and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
Lamia have gone 4W 6D 12L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 1W 7D 14L in their last 22 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamia at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
Lamia's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamia at home: 0.90 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.10 PPG.
Have Lamia or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lamia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lamia
2
Draws
1
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamia and Apollon Smirnis?
From 3 meetings on record, Lamia have won 0, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamia and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Apollon Smirnis 0-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Lamia and Apollon Smirnis?
Apollon Smirnis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Apollon Smirnis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamia 70%, Apollon Smirnis 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Lamia and 50% for Apollon Smirnis. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamia have failed to score in 30% of games; Apollon Smirnis in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamia home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamia play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Lamia's recent matches and 30% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamia vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Lamia's matches and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's.
Do Lamia and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
Lamia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Apollon Smirnis defy the odds to beat Lamia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Apollon Smirnis beat Lamia 1-2 at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamia 1.57 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.71 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Apollon Smirnis outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamia attack 0.98 / defence 1.38 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.46 / defence 1.63, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamia 58% | Draw 25% | Apollon Smirnis 17%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Apollon Smirnis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamia 50%, Apollon Smirnis 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamia's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamia 0.82 PPG, Apollon Smirnis 0.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Apollon Smirnis win broke the near-deadlock. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.