Ionikos 0-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ionikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Ionikos welcome OFI to Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ionikos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Ionikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Ionikos have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. OFI's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Ionikos's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ionikos, 1 for OFI and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ionikos in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
OFI in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ionikos 50% versus OFI 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ionikos 46% | OFI 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ionikos 0.99 xG and OFI 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ionikos attack 0.821 / defence 1.239 | OFI attack 0.906 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.157. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Ionikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Ionikos games / 23 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ionikos 28% | Draw 28% | OFI 44%. Fair-value odds: Ionikos 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, OFI are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ionikos 50% | OFI 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ionikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ionikos 28% | Draw 28% | OFI 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ionikos 0.99 / OFI 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Ionikos attack 0.821 / def 1.239 | OFI attack 0.906 / def 1.221 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: OFI (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ionikos xG
Expected Goals
1.30
OFI xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ionikos vs OFI kick off?
Ionikos vs OFI kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What was the final score in Ionikos vs OFI?
Ionikos 0 - 0 OFI.
Where is Ionikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias.
What competition is Ionikos vs OFI part of?
Ionikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Ionikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Ionikos a 28% chance of winning, OFI a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ionikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ionikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Ionikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): Ionikos 0W | Draws 0 | OFI 1W.
What form are Ionikos and OFI in?
Ionikos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ionikos's attack at 0.82x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Ionikos's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
28%
3.52
28%
3.57
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ionikos xG
Total xG
2.29
1.30
OFI xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ionikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ionikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ionikos and 1.30 for OFI, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ionikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ionikos come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 6D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Ionikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Ionikos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ionikos's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ionikos are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.41 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ionikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ionikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Ionikos have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while OFI have gone 8W 8D 6L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ionikos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ionikos at home: 1.20 PPG; OFI away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ionikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ionikos
2
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ionikos and OFI?
From 6 meetings on record, Ionikos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ionikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when OFI 2-2 Ionikos.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ionikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ionikos 50%, OFI 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ionikos) and 60% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Ionikos have failed to score in 40% of games; OFI in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ionikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ionikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ionikos's recent matches and 50% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ionikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ionikos's recent games and 60% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ionikos and OFI tend to score early?
Ionikos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, OFI in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ionikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dimotiko Gipedo Neapolis Nikaias, Regular Season - 24, as Ionikos and OFI drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ionikos 0.99 xG and OFI 1.30 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ionikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. OFI landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ionikos attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against OFI attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ionikos 28% | Draw 28% | OFI 44%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ionikos 46%, OFI 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ionikos's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ionikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.