Atromitos 2-2 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atromitos (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atromitos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Panserraikos at Peristeri Stadium in Super League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atromitos — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Peristeri Stadium, Atromitos have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Peristeri Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Atromitos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Atromitos, 0 for Panserraikos and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 50% versus Panserraikos 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 46% | Panserraikos 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.49 xG and Panserraikos 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.711 / defence 1.047 | Panserraikos attack 0.716 / defence 1.568. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.138. Atromitos's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.568 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Atromitos games / 46 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 21%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Panserraikos 4.76. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 50% | Panserraikos 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Atromitos 1.49 / Panserraikos 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.711 / def 1.047 | Panserraikos attack 0.716 / def 1.568 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Panserraikos xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Atromitos 2 - 2 Panserraikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs Panserraikos part of?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 52% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Atromitos and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Record (6 meetings): Atromitos 2W | Draws 4 | Panserraikos 0W.
What form are Atromitos and Panserraikos in?
Atromitos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.71x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.66
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.35
0.85
Panserraikos xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
21.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.85 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos come into this having played 52 games, going 17W 12D 23L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 0.85 PPG from 52 outings (12W 8D 32L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.21 PPG, Panserraikos on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Atromitos's home form reads 4W 8D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.21 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.54 points per game from 26 outings (4W 2D 20L).
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 0.88 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 12W 8D 32L in their last 52 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Panserraikos away?
Atromitos's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.77 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atromitos's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 4, Panserraikos have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 54%, Panserraikos 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Atromitos) and 65% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 38% of games; Panserraikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atromitos's recent matches and 46% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Atromitos's recent games and 65% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos and Panserraikos finished level at 2-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.49 xG and Panserraikos 0.85 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Panserraikos outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.71 / defence 1.05 against Panserraikos attack 0.72 / defence 1.57, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 52% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 21%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 46%, Panserraikos 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.21 PPG, Panserraikos 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.