Atromitos 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atromitos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
OFI make the trip to Peristeri Stadium to face Atromitos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 January 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atromitos have posted 1W 4D 5L at Peristeri Stadium — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Atromitos against 1.20 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atromitos lead 2W to 1W over the last 9 encounters, with 6 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Atromitos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
OFI — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 49% versus OFI 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 47% | OFI 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.31 xG and OFI 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.694 / defence 0.985 | OFI attack 0.865 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.068. Atromitos's attack strength of 0.694 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Atromitos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Atromitos games / 43 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atromitos 46% | Draw 28% | OFI 26%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | OFI 3.85. Atromitos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atromitos 40% | OFI 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Peristeri Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 46% | Draw 28% | OFI 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Atromitos 1.31 / OFI 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.694 / def 0.985 | OFI attack 0.865 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.91
OFI xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atromitos vs OFI kick off?
Atromitos vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Peristeri Stadium.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Atromitos 1 - 2 OFI.
Where is Atromitos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Peristeri Stadium.
What competition is Atromitos vs OFI part of?
Atromitos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 46% chance of winning, OFI a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atromitos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Atromitos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
Record (9 meetings): Atromitos 2W | Draws 6 | OFI 1W.
What form are Atromitos and OFI in?
Atromitos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. OFI (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.69x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.86x) against Atromitos's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.54
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.22
0.91
OFI xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
7%
14.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atromitos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.91 for OFI, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atromitos's recent record stands at 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 25L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Atromitos against 1.14 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atromitos have managed 4W 7D 13L from 24 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 4D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.22 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atromitos and OFI in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while OFI have gone 16W 8D 25L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or OFI away?
OFI's away record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 0.79 PPG; OFI away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atromitos
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Atromitos have won 2, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 50%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Atromitos) and 62% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Atromitos have failed to score in 42% of games; OFI in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atromitos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Atromitos's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atromitos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Atromitos's recent games and 62% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and OFI tend to score early?
Atromitos have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, OFI in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as OFI defy the odds to beat Atromitos 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Atromitos 1-2 at Peristeri Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.31 xG and OFI 0.91 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.69 / defence 0.98 against OFI attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 46% | Draw 28% | OFI 26%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual OFI win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 47%, OFI 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
OFI's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.20 PPG, OFI 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.