Werder Bremen 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
wohninvest WESERSTADION plays host to Werder Bremen versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Werder Bremen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bayer Leverkusen arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Werder Bremen 0W, Bayer Leverkusen 1W, 3D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 67% and Bayer Leverkusen 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 69% | Bayer Leverkusen 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.48 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.033 / defence 1.044 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.286 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.958 / away 1.485. Bayer Leverkusen's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Werder Bremen games / 45 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 48%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.08. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 70% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Werder Bremen 1.48 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.033 / def 1.044 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.286 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.958 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Bayer Leverkusen xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Werder Bremen 0 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 27% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Werder Bremen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.29x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
27%
3.66
25%
4.07
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.48
1.99
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.66
27%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
4%
26.90
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.99 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Werder Bremen have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 8D 24L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 24W 9D 12L from 45 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Werder Bremen have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (8W 2D 12L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 6D 6L from 22 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.02 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.18 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
5
Draws
4
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 64%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Werder Bremen and 68% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Werder Bremen's games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Werder Bremen's matches and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Werder Bremen and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Werder Bremen 0-3 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.48 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.99 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.03 / defence 1.04 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.29 / defence 0.73, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 27% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 48%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 69%, Bayer Leverkusen 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.