1. FC Köln 0-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Köln face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Bayern München at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cologne Stadium, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayern München — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against 1. FC Köln's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2023, ended 1–2 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
1. FC Köln trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bayern München trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 60% and Bayern München 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 51% | Bayern München 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG and Bayern München 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.793 / defence 0.992 | Bayern München attack 1.501 / defence 0.676. League average goals — home 1.971 / away 1.499. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.676 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.501 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 1. FC Köln games / 45 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 62%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Bayern München 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.06 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 70% | Bayern München 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.06 / Bayern München 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.793 / def 0.992 | Bayern München attack 1.501 / def 0.676 | league avg home 1.971 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Bayern München xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München?
1. FC Köln 0 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München part of?
1. FC Köln vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 15% chance of winning, Bayern München a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayern München?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 1 | Bayern München 5W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayern München in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 0.79x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
15%
6.63
23%
4.40
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.29
2.23
Bayern München xG
6.63
15%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
11%
9.30
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
2%
61.67
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.23 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 15D 19L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayern München sit at 2.22 PPG from 45 outings (30W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 7W 6D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayern München have taken 2.09 points per game from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Bayern München in 62%.
Defensively: Bayern München in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Bayern München in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 30W 10D 5L in their last 45 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.23 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.09 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Bayern München in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayern München go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2021, when Bayern München won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
9
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 0, Bayern München have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Bayern München 5-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 59%, Bayern München 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for 1. FC Köln and 73% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Köln's games and 68% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 73% of Bayern München's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Bayern München tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out 1. FC Köln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat 1. FC Köln 0-1 at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.06 xG and Bayern München 2.23 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Köln fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Bayern München landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Bayern München attack 1.50 / defence 0.68, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 15% | Draw 23% | Bayern München 62%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 51%, Bayern München 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayern München's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.