Union Berlin 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union Berlin face 1. FC Heidenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Bundesliga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Union Berlin at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Sep 2023, ended Union Berlin 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim — a 1. FC Heidenheim win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | 1. FC Heidenheim 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.40 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.810 / defence 0.910 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.925 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.213. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 56 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 22.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.27 | Draw 3.31 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Berlin at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 30% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 24 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Union Berlin 1.40 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.810 / def 0.910 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.925 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Union Berlin 2 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 44% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.81x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.93x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 56 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
44%
2.27
30%
3.31
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
15.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.02 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 25W 11D 20L from 56 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 14L across 56 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.68 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 16W 7D 4L from their last 27 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 8W 9D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.75 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs 1. FC Heidenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 25W 11D 20L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.04 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 11 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won Union Berlin 0-3 1. FC Heidenheim on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
1
Draws
5
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 44%, 1. FC Heidenheim 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Union Berlin) and 52% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs 1. FC Heidenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Union Berlin's recent games and 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 78% of 1. FC Heidenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 2-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.40 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 44% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, 1. FC Heidenheim 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.54 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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