1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Voith-Arena plays host to 1. FC Heidenheim versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Heidenheim at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bayer Leverkusen away from home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–4 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bayer Leverkusen half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus Bayer Leverkusen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.887 / defence 1.102 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.326 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.216. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.670, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output down. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.326, which lifts their away xG to 1.78. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 21 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 55.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 5.32 | Draw 3.69 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.85. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.887 / def 1.102 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.326 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Bayer Leverkusen xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 19% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 54% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.89) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.67), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.33x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 21 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
19%
5.32
27%
3.69
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.76
1.78
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.32
19%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
31.43
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.2 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 26W 16D 13L from 55 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-W in the last five.
Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 12L across 55 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.91 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 17W 7D 3L from their last 27 home games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record stands at 14W 7D 6L across their last 27 away games, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.04 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 16D 13L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 31W 12D 12L in their last 55 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.15 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.81 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 6-0 1. FC Heidenheim on 8 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: 1. FC Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 52%, Bayer Leverkusen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 63% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Bayer Leverkusen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 48% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 74% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 0.98 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.78 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.33 / defence 0.67, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 19% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 54%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.71 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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