SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 33 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome Union Berlin to Home Deluxe Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 May 2027 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Home Deluxe Arena, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.30 PPG versus Union Berlin's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Union Berlin in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus Union Berlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Union Berlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.76 xG and Union Berlin 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / defence 1.110 | Union Berlin attack 0.765 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 SC Paderborn 07 games / 40 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 26%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Union Berlin 3.85. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.76 / Union Berlin 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / def 1.110 | Union Berlin attack 0.765 / def 1.313 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Union Berlin xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 51% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.66) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.27
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Union Berlin xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.19 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 10D 11L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (11W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 10D 11L in their last 40 games (1.68 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Union Berlin away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.89 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.89 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 74%, Union Berlin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Paderborn 07 and 58% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 47% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 58% of Union Berlin's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.