FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Eintracht Frankfurt at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FSV Mainz 05 stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 3W 5D 2L at Mewa Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Eintracht Frankfurt, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FSV Mainz 05.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
It is worth noting that Eintracht Frankfurt have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
FSV Mainz 05 in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 57% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 52% | Eintracht Frankfurt 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.876 / defence 0.915 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.118 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.358. Data: 60 FSV Mainz 05 games / 60 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.23. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt lead the H2H ledger, but FSV Mainz 05 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | Eintracht Frankfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.71 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.876 / def 0.915 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.118 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Mewa Arena.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FSV Mainz 05 2 - 1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 45% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (9 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 1W | Draws 4 | Eintracht Frankfurt 4W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.88) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.21
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.10
1.39
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
6%
17.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.39 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 20W 19D 21L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 16L across 60 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.32 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 9W 13D 8L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 10W 11D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.95 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.33 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FSV Mainz 05 at 57%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FSV Mainz 05) and 63% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 73% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 63% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.71 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.39 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 45% | Draw 24% | Eintracht Frankfurt 31%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, Eintracht Frankfurt 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.32 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.