FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours FSV Mainz 05 (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FSV Mainz 05 face Borussia Mönchengladbach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Mewa Arena to take on FSV Mainz 05. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Mewa Arena this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mewa Arena this season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FSV Mainz 05 are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FSV Mainz 05 register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
FSV Mainz 05 hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, with 5 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 4–3 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FSV Mainz 05 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FSV Mainz 05 trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 62% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.96 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.893 / defence 1.421 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 FSV Mainz 05 games / 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 41% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 37%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.44 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.87) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 80% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 41% | Draw 22% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.96 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.893 / def 1.421 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.87
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 41% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (10 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 4W | Draws 5 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FSV Mainz 05's attack at 0.89x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
41%
2.44
22%
4.57
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.83
1.87
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
15%
6.47
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
6%
15.81
5%
19.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.87 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, FSV Mainz 05 have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 13W 11D 18L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.19 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 games (1.19 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.86 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have FSV Mainz 05 or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
FSV Mainz 05 have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when FSV Mainz 05 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FSV Mainz 05
5
Draws
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 62%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FSV Mainz 05) and 62% (Borussia Mönchengladbach).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 33% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.