FC St. Pauli 0-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfB Stuttgart's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 0.60 for VfB Stuttgart. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
VfB Stuttgart — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 49% versus VfB Stuttgart 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 43% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.644 / defence 0.849 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.221 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.406. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfB Stuttgart have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 FC St. Pauli games / 65 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 47%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | VfB Stuttgart 2.13. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfB Stuttgart are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 40% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.99 / VfB Stuttgart 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.644 / def 0.849 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.221 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.46
VfB Stuttgart xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 25% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.22x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
25%
4.07
29%
3.47
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.45
1.46
VfB Stuttgart xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.46 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 65 games, going 28W 16D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.75 PPG from 65 outings (34W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.75 for VfB Stuttgart. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 14W 10D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.62 points per game from 32 outings (15W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.06 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 28W 16D 21L in their last 65 games (1.54 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 34W 12D 19L in their last 65 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.62 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
0
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 44%, VfB Stuttgart 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (FC St. Pauli) and 69% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play VfB Stuttgart?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 56% of VfB Stuttgart's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 69% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC St. Pauli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat FC St. Pauli 0-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.46 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.64 / defence 0.85 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 47%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 43%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.54 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.