1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 11 as 1. FC Heidenheim welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach to Voith-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 0.50 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Borussia Mönchengladbach, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 48% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 59% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.831 / defence 1.063 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.127 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Data: 44 1. FC Heidenheim games / 44 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 48%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.831 / def 1.063 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.127 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 28% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (0.83) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
28%
3.63
24%
4.12
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.99
1.73
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.63
28%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
5%
20.56
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.73 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 8W 8D 28L from 44 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 20L across 44 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Mönchengladbach by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 3W 5D 13L from 21 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.55 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 8D 28L in their last 44 games (0.73 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 0.67 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Borussia Mönchengladbach won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 2-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 48%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 62% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 67% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat 1. FC Heidenheim 0-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.26 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.73 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.13 / defence 0.92, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 28% | Draw 24% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 48%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 59%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.