FC Augsburg 1-4 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FSV Mainz 05 at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FSV Mainz 05's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FSV Mainz 05's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
FSV Mainz 05 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FSV Mainz 05 have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 51% versus FSV Mainz 05 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | FSV Mainz 05 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.42 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.917 / defence 1.074 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.936 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.556. Data: 37 FC Augsburg games / 37 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | FSV Mainz 05 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FSV Mainz 05 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | FSV Mainz 05 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Augsburg 1.42 / FSV Mainz 05 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.917 / def 1.074 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.936 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
FSV Mainz 05 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FC Augsburg 1 - 4 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 35% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 5W.
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.92x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FSV Mainz 05's attack (0.94x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.10
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.56
FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.56 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 12W 10D 15L from 37 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 12L across 37 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.43 for FSV Mainz 05. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 6W 5D 7L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 8W 3D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.51 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Early Season
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 14W 11D 12L in their last 37 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
FSV Mainz 05's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.28 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FSV Mainz 05 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FSV Mainz 05 won 4-1 on 22 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FSV Mainz 05 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
7
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 2, FSV Mainz 05 have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 56%, FSV Mainz 05 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for FC Augsburg and 67% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 33% of games; FSV Mainz 05 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Augsburg's games and 56% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do FC Augsburg and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 1-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.42 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.56 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 35% | Draw 24% | FSV Mainz 05 41%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 57%, FSV Mainz 05 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.24 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.