Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host SC Freiburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Eintracht Frankfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 3W 2D 5L at Deutsche Bank Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Freiburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Freiburg's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Freiburg are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Eintracht Frankfurt hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for SC Freiburg, with 4 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Eintracht Frankfurt winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Eintracht Frankfurt and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
SC Freiburg trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 75% and SC Freiburg 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Eintracht Frankfurt 69% | SC Freiburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 xG and SC Freiburg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.931 / defence 1.066 | SC Freiburg attack 0.899 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.981 / away 1.344. Data: 35 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 36 SC Freiburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Eintracht Frankfurt dominate the H2H record, yet SC Freiburg are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Freiburg (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Frankfurt 70% | SC Freiburg 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 44% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.62 / SC Freiburg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.931 / def 1.066 | SC Freiburg attack 0.899 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.981 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SC Freiburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 44% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Record (10 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 5W | Draws 4 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.82
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.91
1.29
SC Freiburg xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
6%
17.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.29 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 12D 13L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Freiburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.25 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (5W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Freiburg's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.56 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Early Season
SC Freiburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 15W 8D 13L in their last 36 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or SC Freiburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.39 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and SC Freiburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, SC Freiburg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 56% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent matches and 39% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 56% of SC Freiburg's.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.