Borussia Dortmund 4-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to take on Borussia Dortmund. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 6W 2D 2L at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Dortmund at 1.70 PPG versus 1. FC Heidenheim's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Dortmund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 58% and 1. FC Heidenheim 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 58% | 1. FC Heidenheim 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.140 / defence 0.822 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.004 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.414. Data: 36 Borussia Dortmund games / 36 1. FC Heidenheim games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.85. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.57 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.140 / def 0.822 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.004 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 13 September 2024 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 0W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Heidenheim 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.14) and 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.47
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.74
1.17
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.17 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 19W 10D 7L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 12W 12D 12L from 36 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Heidenheim.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.00 PPG from 18 outings (11W 3D 4L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.56 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 19W 10D 7L in their last 36 games (1.86 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 12W 12D 12L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.00 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
0
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 56%, 1. FC Heidenheim 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Borussia Dortmund) and 44% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Borussia Dortmund's recent games and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat 1. FC Heidenheim 4-2 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.57 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.17 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Heidenheim outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 45% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Heidenheim 26%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 58%, 1. FC Heidenheim 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.