1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1899 Hoffenheim face Borussia Dortmund.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund meet at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 7W 1D 2L at PreZero Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1899 Hoffenheim are significantly better at PreZero Arena than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Borussia Dortmund's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Dortmund in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Borussia Dortmund, who have claimed 7 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
1899 Hoffenheim — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 67% and Borussia Dortmund 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 64% | Borussia Dortmund 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.051 / defence 0.897 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.229 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.449. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Borussia Dortmund have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 63 1899 Hoffenheim games / 63 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 44%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Borussia Dortmund 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Borussia Dortmund 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 / Borussia Dortmund 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.051 / def 0.897 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.229 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Borussia Dortmund xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
1899 Hoffenheim 2 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 31% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (9 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 1 | Borussia Dortmund 7W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1899 Hoffenheim's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.23x) against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
31%
3.19
24%
4.09
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.90
1.60
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.19
31%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
6%
15.74
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 22W 17D 24L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 36W 13D 14L from 63 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.35 PPG from 31 outings (12W 6D 13L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 14W 8D 9L from 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 22W 17D 24L in their last 63 games (1.32 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 36W 13D 14L in their last 63 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.35 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.61 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
7
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for 1899 Hoffenheim, 68% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 61% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 68% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 61% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Borussia Dortmund 2-1 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.31 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.60 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.23 / defence 0.73, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 31% | Draw 24% | Borussia Dortmund 44%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual 1899 Hoffenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 64%, Borussia Dortmund 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.