SV Elversberg 1-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Elversberg face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 meet at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Schalke 04's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for SV Elversberg, 1.50 for FC Schalke 04 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, SV Elversberg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Nov 2023, ended SV Elversberg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 — a SV Elversberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 62% versus FC Schalke 04 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 66% | FC Schalke 04 62%). Note also that FC Schalke 04 surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.737 / defence 1.136 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.806 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.340. SV Elversberg's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.58. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 29 games and FC Schalke 04's last 29.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.23 | Draw 3.78 | FC Schalke 04 3.47. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.58 / FC Schalke 04 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.737 / def 1.136 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.806 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Schalke 04 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
SV Elversberg 1 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 45% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against FC Schalke 04's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.81x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 29 games and FC Schalke 04's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.78
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.81
1.23
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.23 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 14L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.21 for FC Schalke 04. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 5W 3D 6L from their last 14 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 2W 2D 10L across their last 14 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.55 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
SV Elversberg (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 10W 5D 14L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Schalke 04 won SV Elversberg 1-4 FC Schalke 04 on 20 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
2
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 50%, FC Schalke 04 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SV Elversberg and 64% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 43% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Elversberg's games and 64% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SV Elversberg's matches and 64% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 79% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg and FC Schalke 04 finished level at 1-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.58 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.23 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.81 / defence 1.37, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 45% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 29%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 66%, FC Schalke 04 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.34 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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