Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Ostseestadion, Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hansa Rostock lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 38% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 48% | 1. FC Magdeburg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.929 / defence 1.089 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.683 / defence 1.135. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.338. Data: 63 Hansa Rostock games / 63 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Magdeburg 4.35. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hansa Rostock 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.60 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.929 / def 1.089 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.683 / def 1.135 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
0.99
1. FC Magdeburg xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 50% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.68x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
50%
1.98
27%
3.73
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.59
0.99
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
5%
21.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 0.99 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 9D 33L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.21 PPG from 63 outings (20W 16D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.21 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 12W 3D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 21W 9D 33L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.26 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 45%, 1. FC Magdeburg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hansa Rostock) and 58% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 36% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 55% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.60 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.6 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.93 / defence 1.09 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 50% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 23%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Magdeburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 48%, 1. FC Magdeburg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.14 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.