SV Elversberg 2-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
1. FC Kaiserslautern travel to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 4L across their last 9 home games (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Kaiserslautern — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, SV Elversberg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended SV Elversberg 2–3 1. FC Kaiserslautern — a 1. FC Kaiserslautern win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Elversberg trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1. FC Kaiserslautern trading profile (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 68% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 68% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.90 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.924 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.864 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.386. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 19 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 53.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.01 | Draw 4.48 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.59. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.90 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 9 home games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 56% (last 9 home games) | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.90 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.924 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.864 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 4 February 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SV Elversberg 2 - 1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 50% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 19 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
50%
2.01
22%
4.48
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.38
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.38 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg come into this having played 19 games, going 7W 4D 8L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Kaiserslautern sit at 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.32 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Elversberg's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across their last 9 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have taken 0.56 points per game from their last 9 away games (1W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.68 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 79%.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 7W 4D 8L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 6W 3D 10L in their last 19 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.22 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SV Elversberg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Kaiserslautern specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 4, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 January 2026: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-3 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Elversberg at 56%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SV Elversberg and 78% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SV Elversberg's games and 78% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Elversberg's matches and 78% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 89% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Elversberg edge out 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.90 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 28%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 68%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.32 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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