SC Paderborn 07 4-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Fortuna Düsseldorf.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.40 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 72% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.23 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.911 / defence 0.937 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.411 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.386. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack rating of 1.411, which lifts their away xG to 1.83. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 53 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 53.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 26% | Draw 23% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 52%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.91 | Draw 4.37 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.94. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% (last 10 away games).

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