Karlsruher SC 2-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Karlsruher SC welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BBBank Wildpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 February 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC at BBBank Wildpark this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Karlsruher SC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Fortuna Düsseldorf have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Karlsruher SC's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Karlsruher SC trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 64% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 62% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.84 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.116 / defence 1.161 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.430 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.387. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.430 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Karlsruher SC games / 55 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 31% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 3.23 | Draw 5.00 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.04. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.14. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.14 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Fortuna Düsseldorf lead the H2H ledger, but Karlsruher SC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karlsruher SC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 31% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 76% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.84 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.116 / def 1.161 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.430 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Karlsruher SC 2 - 2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 31% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 49% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (5 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Karlsruher SC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 2.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
31%
3.20
20%
5.04
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
4.14
2.31
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.20
31%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.11
Clean Sheet
10%
10.02
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
3%
32.10
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.31 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 4.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 14D 21L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.64 PPG from 55 outings (26W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.35 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 14W 7D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Karlsruher SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.41 points per game from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.89 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 60%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 20W 14D 21L in their last 55 games (1.35 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 26W 12D 17L in their last 55 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.81 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
5
Draws
5
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 10 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 0, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Karlsruher SC 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Karlsruher SC and 59% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karlsruher SC vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 59% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC and Fortuna Düsseldorf finished level at 2-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.84 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.31 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.43 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 31% | Draw 20% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 49%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 62%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.35 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.