SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host SSV Ulm 1846 at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 1W 1D 1L from 3 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.33 points per game. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SSV Ulm 1846 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, SSV Jahn Regensburg have the edge — a 1.33 PPG advantage (1.33 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.55 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.869 / defence 1.150 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.352. Data: 1 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 1 SSV Ulm 1846 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 31%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | SSV Ulm 1846 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.55 / SSV Ulm 1846 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.869 / def 1.150 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 42% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-W-L. SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.87) and SSV Ulm 1846's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
42%
2.41
27%
3.70
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.32 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SSV Ulm 1846's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 0.00 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 100%.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 5-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SSV Ulm 1846?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 100% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SSV Ulm 1846 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 100% of SSV Ulm 1846's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SSV Ulm 1846 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Ulm 1846 in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SSV Jahn Regensburg edge out SSV Ulm 1846 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.55 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% | Draw 27% | SSV Ulm 1846 31%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 0%, SSV Ulm 1846 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.00 PPG, SSV Ulm 1846 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SSV Jahn Regensburg win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.