SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 0.88 PPG across 8 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 2.38 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.38 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. SSV Jahn Regensburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record at Jahnstadion Regensburg: 1W 1D 2L from 4 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1. FC Kaiserslautern have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the stronger side — 0.82 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.88). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 62% of games.
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.87 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.557 / defence 1.414 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.955 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.478. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.557 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 40 1. FC Kaiserslautern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 62%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.61. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Kaiserslautern (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.87 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.557 / def 1.414 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.955 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
2.00
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 0 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 14% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Record (2 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 2.38 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack (0.95x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
14%
7.33
25%
4.04
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.87
2.00
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
7.33
14%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
14%
7.36
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
2%
53.92
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2.00 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 2W 1D 5L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Kaiserslautern, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SSV Jahn Regensburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 2.12 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 75%.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Early Season
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SSV Jahn Regensburg won 0-3 on 16 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
1
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Kaiserslautern see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 25%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 75% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 75% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 75% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SSV Jahn Regensburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern finished level at 0-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.87 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.00 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. 1. FC Kaiserslautern landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.56 / defence 1.41 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 6/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 14% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 62%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 62%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.