Hertha BSC 0-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Olympiastadion to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Olympiastadion this season.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.70 in Hertha BSC's favour (2.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hertha BSC 52% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.21 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.807 / defence 0.751 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.683 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.281. Hertha BSC's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Hertha BSC games / 48 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 49% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | 1. FC Magdeburg 5.00. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — 1. FC Magdeburg's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympiastadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 49% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Hertha BSC 1.21 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.807 / def 0.751 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.683 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
0.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Olympiastadion.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hertha BSC 0 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 49% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): Hertha BSC 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.81x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.68x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
49%
2.03
30%
3.29
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
1.87
0.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
6%
16.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 0.66 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hertha BSC come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 10D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.31 PPG from 48 outings (17W 12D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.31 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hertha BSC's home form reads 8W 6D 10L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.46 points per game from 24 outings (10W 5D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.60 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 48 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 17W 12D 19L in their last 48 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.25 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 7 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hertha BSC) and 62% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hertha BSC's games and 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat Hertha BSC 0-2 at Olympiastadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.21 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.66 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 0.66 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.81 / defence 0.75 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.68 / defence 1.03, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 49% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Magdeburg 20%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Magdeburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.46 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.