FC Schalke 04 3-4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VELTINS-Arena plays host to FC Schalke 04 versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FC Schalke 04 (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 4W 4D 2L at VELTINS-Arena — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at VELTINS-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Schalke 04, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Schalke 04 — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Schalke 04 60% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Schalke 04 63% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.115 / defence 1.293 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.056 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.505. Data: 43 FC Schalke 04 games / 43 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: VELTINS-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.84 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.115 / def 1.293 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.056 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
2.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at VELTINS-Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC Schalke 04 3 - 4 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at VELTINS-Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 34% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): FC Schalke 04 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Schalke 04's attack rating (1.11) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.06x) against FC Schalke 04's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
34%
2.92
23%
4.35
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
3.89
2.06
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.92
34%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.81
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
4%
22.76
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 2.06 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 14W 9D 20L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 15L across 43 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for FC Schalke 04 against 1.40 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — FC Schalke 04 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 14W 9D 20L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 12D 15L in their last 43 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.67 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Schalke 04 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Schalke 04 have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Schalke 04
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Schalke 04 62%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Schalke 04) and 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Schalke 04's recent matches and 43% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge out FC Schalke 04 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat FC Schalke 04 3-4 at VELTINS-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.84 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.06 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.11 / defence 1.29 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 34% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 43%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 63%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Schalke 04 1.19 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.