Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates VfL Bochum at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum meet at LEAG Energie Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Energie Cottbus have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: W L L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, VfL Bochum are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Energie Cottbus register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, VfL Bochum in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Energie Cottbus half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Energie Cottbus 75% versus VfL Bochum 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Energie Cottbus 100% | VfL Bochum 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Energie Cottbus 1.62 xG and VfL Bochum 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Energie Cottbus attack 1.195 / defence 1.326 | VfL Bochum attack 0.917 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.645. VfL Bochum's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 4 Energie Cottbus games / 38 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 32% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 47%. Fair-value odds: Energie Cottbus 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | VfL Bochum 2.13. VfL Bochum hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Bochum are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfL Bochum if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Energie Cottbus 75% | VfL Bochum 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: LEAG Energie Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Energie Cottbus 32% | Draw 22% | VfL Bochum 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Energie Cottbus 1.62 / VfL Bochum 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Energie Cottbus attack 1.195 / def 1.326 | VfL Bochum attack 0.917 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: VfL Bochum (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Energie Cottbus xG
Expected Goals
2.00
VfL Bochum xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at LEAG Energie Stadion.
Where is Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at LEAG Energie Stadion.
What competition is Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum part of?
Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Energie Cottbus a 32% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfL Bochum the favourite.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum in?
Energie Cottbus (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Energie Cottbus's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.92x) against Energie Cottbus's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Bochum Win
32%
3.16
22%
4.65
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Energie Cottbus xG
Total xG
3.62
2.00
VfL Bochum xG
3.16
32%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
14%
7.39
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
4%
23.35
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Energie Cottbus and 2.00 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Energie Cottbus have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 2L record — W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum's form line: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, VfL Bochum are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Energie Cottbus.
Attack vs Defence
Energie Cottbus are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Energie Cottbus's scoring rate against VfL Bochum's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 25%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Energie Cottbus 75%, VfL Bochum 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Energie Cottbus and 25% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Energie Cottbus home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Energie Cottbus play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Energie Cottbus's recent matches and 25% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Energie Cottbus vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Energie Cottbus's matches and 25% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Energie Cottbus and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Energie Cottbus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.