Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome 1. FC Magdeburg to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 62% and 1. FC Magdeburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.31 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.887 / defence 1.150 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.977 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.357. Data: 52 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 52 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 70% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.31 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.887 / def 1.150 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.977 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.52
1. FC Magdeburg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 33% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (3 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.89) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
33%
3.08
26%
3.92
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.84
1.52
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.11
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.52 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Eintracht Braunschweig have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 11D 27L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 18W 12D 22L from 52 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.02 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.52 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Braunschweig have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 63%.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 11D 27L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.35 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting 1. FC Magdeburg specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
4
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 9 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-6 Eintracht Braunschweig.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 58%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 62% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 27% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 62% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.31 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.98 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 33% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 42%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Eintracht Braunschweig win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 60%, 1. FC Magdeburg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.02 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.