1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Fritz Walter Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Kaiserslautern — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record at Fritz Walter Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are significantly better at Fritz Walter Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 1.10 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with 1. FC Kaiserslautern winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 60% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.266 / defence 1.069 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.340. 1. FC Kaiserslautern carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing 1. FC Kaiserslautern's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 55 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Kaiserslautern (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.50 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 90% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.266 / def 1.069 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 59% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack at 1.27x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.86
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
3.96
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
8%
12.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
2%
59.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record stands at 24W 12D 19L from 55 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 27L across 55 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 7W 5D 16L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.40 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.93 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Kaiserslautern go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 5, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 79%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 64% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Kaiserslautern edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Fritz Walter Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.