Saint Etienne 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Laval meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Laval (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Saint Etienne, 1.20 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Laval and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Laval 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 49% | Laval 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.09 xG and Laval 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.049 / defence 1.061 | Laval attack 0.983 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.159. Data: 57 Saint Etienne games / 57 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 29% | Laval 38%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Laval at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 40% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 29% | Laval 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Saint Etienne 1.09 / Laval 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.049 / def 1.061 | Laval attack 0.983 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Laval (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Laval xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Laval kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Laval kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Laval part of?
Saint Etienne vs Laval is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 32% chance of winning, Laval a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Saint Etienne and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Laval?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 0 | Laval 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Laval in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Laval (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.05) and Laval's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.98x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
32%
3.09
29%
3.40
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.30
1.21
Laval xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.21 for Laval, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 23W 15D 19L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval's form line: 24W 8D 25L from 57 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.40 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
On the road, Laval have gone 10W 4D 14L from 28 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Laval in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 15D 19L in their last 57 games (1.47 PPG), while Laval have gone 24W 8D 25L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Laval away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.68 PPG; Laval away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Laval in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
1
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Laval?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Laval have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Laval?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Laval 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Saint Etienne) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Laval in 39%; Laval in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 36% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Laval tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Laval in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Laval finished level at 0-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.09 xG and Laval 1.21 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Laval attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 29% | Laval 38%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 49%, Laval 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Laval's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.47 PPG, Laval 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.