PAU 0-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward PAU. A 0.50 PPG lead over Saint Etienne (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: PAU 1W, Saint Etienne 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Saint Etienne 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 47% | Saint Etienne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.49 xG and Saint Etienne 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.262 / defence 1.210 | Saint Etienne attack 0.895 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. PAU carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 PAU games / 58 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 60% | Saint Etienne 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG PAU 1.49 / Saint Etienne 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.262 / def 1.210 | Saint Etienne attack 0.895 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: PAU (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Saint Etienne kick off?
PAU vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
PAU 0 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is PAU vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Saint Etienne part of?
PAU vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 43% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAU and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 1W.
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.26x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.90x) against PAU's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
43%
2.31
25%
3.93
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
PAU xG
Total xG
2.72
1.23
Saint Etienne xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
14.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are PAU and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for PAU and 1.23 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 20W 18D 20L from 58 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 19L across 58 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for PAU against 1.47 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 11W 9D 8L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Saint Etienne's away record stands at 9W 9D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.43 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 20W 18D 20L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 23W 16D 19L in their last 58 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Saint Etienne away?
PAU's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.50 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.29 PPG.
Have PAU or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 6-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
PAU
1
Draws
4
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when PAU 0-3 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Saint Etienne 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PAU's games and 68% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PAU vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.49 xG and Saint Etienne 1.23 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.26 / defence 1.21 against Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 43% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 31%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 47%, Saint Etienne 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.34 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.