RED Star FC 93 2-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 26 as RED Star FC 93 welcome Amiens to Stade de Paris. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Paris this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Amiens — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
RED Star FC 93 are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for RED Star FC 93, 1 for Amiens and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Amiens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Amiens in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 48% versus Amiens 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 52% | Amiens 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.54 xG and Amiens 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.998 / defence 1.248 | Amiens attack 0.858 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing RED Star FC 93's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 RED Star FC 93 games / 63 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 47% | Draw 25% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Amiens 3.57. RED Star FC 93 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RED Star FC 93 at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Friday 7 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 47% | Draw 25% | Amiens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.54 / Amiens 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.998 / def 1.248 | Amiens attack 0.858 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Amiens xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 March 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
RED Star FC 93 2 - 0 Amiens.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 47% chance of winning, Amiens a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 0 | Amiens 1W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RED Star FC 93's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.95
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.68
1.14
Amiens xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.14 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 5D 12L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens's form line: 9W 3D 13L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.16 PPG, Amiens on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 9L from 12 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.04 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Amiens in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Amiens have gone 9W 3D 13L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Amiens away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.42 PPG; Amiens away: 0.58 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Amiens in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Amiens?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 2, Amiens have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Amiens 1-3 RED Star FC 93.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 50%, Amiens 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for RED Star FC 93 and 58% for Amiens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amiens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 42% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 58% of Amiens's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Amiens tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Amiens 2-0 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.54 xG and Amiens 1.14 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Amiens landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.00 / defence 1.25 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 47% | Draw 25% | Amiens 28%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 52%, Amiens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Amiens's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.16 PPG, Amiens 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RED Star FC 93 win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.