PAU 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAU host Dunkerque at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 3W 1D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.43 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
PAU are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, PAU have won 0, Dunkerque 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
PAU in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Dunkerque 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 73% | Dunkerque 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.86 xG and Dunkerque 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.286 / defence 1.333 | Dunkerque attack 0.910 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. PAU carry an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 PAU games / 15 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 29%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Dunkerque 3.45. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: PAU 50% | Dunkerque 29% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 49% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG PAU 1.86 / Dunkerque 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.286 / def 1.333 | Dunkerque attack 0.910 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: PAU (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Dunkerque xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Dunkerque kick off?
PAU vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
PAU 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is PAU vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Dunkerque part of?
PAU vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 49% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both PAU and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
Record (2 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 2W.
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in?
PAU (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAU's attack rating (1.29) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.43
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
PAU xG
Total xG
3.26
1.39
Dunkerque xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for PAU and 1.39 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, PAU have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 7W 4D 4L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 3W 3D 9L from 15 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dunkerque.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 2.00 PPG from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.80 PPG overall record — Dunkerque travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.80 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 7W 4D 4L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 9L in their last 15 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Dunkerque away?
PAU's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 2.00 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2025, when Dunkerque won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAU
2
Draws
6
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, PAU have won 0, Dunkerque have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Dunkerque 3-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dunkerque tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 43%, Dunkerque 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (PAU) and 43% (Dunkerque). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dunkerque in 43%; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of PAU's recent matches and 29% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of PAU's matches and 43% of Dunkerque's.
Do PAU and Dunkerque tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Dunkerque finished level at 1-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.86 xG and Dunkerque 1.39 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.29 / defence 1.33 against Dunkerque attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 49% | Draw 23% | Dunkerque 29%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 73%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAU (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.