Auxerre 3-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Auxerre at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Quevilly at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Auxerre have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Auxerre register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Quevilly in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Auxerre, 0 for Quevilly and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Auxerre winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Quevilly trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 58% versus Quevilly 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Quevilly 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 2.00 xG and Quevilly 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.256 / defence 1.059 | Quevilly attack 1.178 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Auxerre carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Auxerre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Auxerre games / 53 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Quevilly 3.57. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Quevilly 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 51% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Auxerre 2.00 / Quevilly 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.256 / def 1.059 | Quevilly attack 1.178 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Quevilly xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Quevilly kick off?
Auxerre vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Auxerre 3 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Auxerre vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Quevilly part of?
Auxerre vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 51% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Auxerre and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Auxerre and Quevilly in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 1.26x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.61
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.43
1.43
Quevilly xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.43 for Quevilly, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 15W 16D 22L from 53 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 19L across 53 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.15 PPG, Quevilly on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 8W 9D 9L from 26 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 7W 8D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.23 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 15W 16D 22L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 14W 20D 19L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Quevilly away?
Auxerre's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.27 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Quevilly in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Auxerre's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Auxerre
1
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Quevilly have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Quevilly 4-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Quevilly?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 54%, Quevilly 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Auxerre) and 42% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 35%; Auxerre have failed to score in 31% of games; Quevilly in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Auxerre's recent matches and 38% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Auxerre's recent games and 42% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Quevilly tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Quevilly 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Quevilly 3-2 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 2.00 xG and Quevilly 1.43 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.26 / defence 1.06 against Quevilly attack 1.18 / defence 1.25, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 51% | Draw 22% | Quevilly 28%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Quevilly 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.15 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.