Guingamp vs Sochaux – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 41%, yet in-form Sochaux provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 34 as Guingamp welcome Sochaux to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Sochaux have recorded 1W 2D 1L from 4 outings — 1.25 PPG. Last five: L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Sochaux have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sochaux — 0.75 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.25 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Guingamp's 30% rate and Sochaux's 0% (using overall form) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Sochaux have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Guingamp's 1 victories.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
It is worth noting that Sochaux have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Guingamp 50% | Sochaux 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guingamp 50% | Sochaux 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.12 xG and Sochaux 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 4 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Sochaux 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sochaux (1.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Sochaux 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 41% | Draw 35% | Sochaux 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Guingamp 1.12 / Sochaux 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.097 / def 1.075 | Sochaux attack 0.593 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sochaux xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Sochaux kick off?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Sochaux part of?
Guingamp vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 41% chance of winning, Sochaux a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Guingamp and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 4W.
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sochaux (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.10x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sochaux's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
41%
2.43
35%
2.89
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.92
0.80
Sochaux xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 11.7 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.80 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sochaux sit at 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sochaux, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.00 PPG, Sochaux on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sochaux in 0%.
Defensively: Sochaux in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Sochaux
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Guingamp or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sochaux in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Sochaux runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Sochaux specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
4
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Sochaux?
From 5 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Sochaux have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Guingamp 50% BTTS, Sochaux 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 25% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: Sochaux in 75%; Sochaux in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Guingamp's recent matches and 0% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 25% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.