Dunkerque 0-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Dunkerque welcome Amiens to Stade Marcel-Tribut. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque have gone 0W 2D 4L this season (6 games, 0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Amiens's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dunkerque, 1 for Amiens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Amiens trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 42% versus Amiens 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 50% | Amiens 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.87 xG and Amiens 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.645 / defence 1.256 | Amiens attack 0.752 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.103. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Dunkerque games / 50 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 32% | Amiens 38%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Amiens 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates are neutral: Dunkerque 50% | Amiens 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 29% | Draw 32% | Amiens 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Dunkerque 0.87 / Amiens 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.645 / def 1.256 | Amiens attack 0.752 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Amiens (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Amiens xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Amiens kick off?
Dunkerque vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Dunkerque 0 - 1 Amiens.
Where is Dunkerque vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Amiens part of?
Dunkerque vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 29% chance of winning, Amiens a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Dunkerque and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Record (2 meetings): Dunkerque 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dunkerque's attack rating (0.65) and Amiens's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.10
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
1.91
1.04
Amiens xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.04 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 2W 3D 7L from 12 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 4L across 12 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amiens by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.75 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Amiens's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amiens's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dunkerque are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 0.83 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Amiens in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Amiens have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Amiens away?
Amiens's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.20 PPG; Amiens away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Amiens in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Dunkerque have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 4, Amiens have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Amiens?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dunkerque 40% BTTS, Amiens 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Dunkerque and 20% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 60% of games; Amiens in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 20% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Dunkerque's recent games and 20% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Amiens tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Amiens in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Dunkerque 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Dunkerque 0-1 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.87 xG and Amiens 1.04 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dunkerque fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.65 / defence 1.26 against Amiens attack 0.75 / defence 1.07, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 29% | Draw 32% | Amiens 38%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 50%, Amiens 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.