Amiens 0-0 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Laval (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Laval have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Laval are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Amiens 1W, Laval 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 1–2 with Laval winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Laval — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 49% versus Laval 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 43% | Laval 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.93 xG and Laval 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.935 / defence 1.094 | Laval attack 0.976 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.105. Laval's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Amiens games / 49 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 28% | Draw 30% | Laval 41%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Laval 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Laval if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Laval 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 28% | Draw 30% | Laval 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Amiens 0.93 / Laval 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.935 / def 1.094 | Laval attack 0.976 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Laval (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Laval xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Laval kick off?
Amiens vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Laval?
Amiens 0 - 0 Laval.
Where is Amiens vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Laval part of?
Amiens vs Laval is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 28% chance of winning, Laval a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 1W.
What form are Amiens and Laval in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Laval (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.94x the league average against Laval's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.98x) against Amiens's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
28%
3.51
30%
3.28
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.11
1.18
Laval xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Amiens and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Amiens and 1.18 for Laval, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens's recent record stands at 17W 11D 21L from 49 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval, meanwhile, have gone 22W 5D 22L across 49 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Amiens against 1.45 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 10W 5D 9L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Laval's away record stands at 8W 3D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.16 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Laval in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Laval have gone 22W 5D 22L in their last 49 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Laval away?
Amiens's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.46 PPG; Laval away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Amiens or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Laval in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Amiens
3
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Laval 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Amiens) and 50% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Laval in 38%; Laval in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Amiens's recent matches and 38% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Amiens's recent games and 50% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Laval tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Laval in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 12, as Amiens and Laval drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.93 xG and Laval 1.18 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Laval landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Laval attack 0.98 / defence 0.78, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 28% | Draw 30% | Laval 41%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 43%, Laval 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.27 PPG, Laval 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Laval (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.