Caen 0-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dunkerque at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Caen and Dunkerque meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Caen's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Caen are significantly better at Stade Michel d'Ornano than their overall form suggests.
Dunkerque have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dunkerque are 1.30 PPG clear of Caen in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (1.70 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2024, ended 1–3 with Dunkerque winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Dunkerque goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 46% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 49% | Dunkerque 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.91 xG and Dunkerque 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.750 / defence 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 1.121 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.034. Caen's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Caen games / 59 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 28% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 43%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Dunkerque 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dunkerque if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Dunkerque 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 28% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Caen 0.91 / Dunkerque 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.750 / def 1.047 | Dunkerque attack 1.121 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Dunkerque xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Dunkerque kick off?
Caen vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Dunkerque?
Caen 0 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Caen vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Dunkerque part of?
Caen vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 28% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Caen and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Caen 2W | Draws 2 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Caen and Dunkerque in?
Caen (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.75) and Dunkerque's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.12x) against Caen's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
28%
3.61
29%
3.42
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Caen xG
Total xG
2.13
1.22
Dunkerque xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.16
17%
5.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 14.5 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Caen and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Caen and 1.22 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Caen's recent record stands at 21W 10D 28L from 59 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 23W 13D 23L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Caen against 1.39 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Caen have managed 13W 5D 11L from 29 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 11W 9D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Caen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.12 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 21W 10D 28L in their last 59 games (1.24 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 23W 13D 23L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Dunkerque away?
Caen's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.52 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Dunkerque have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Caen
2
Draws
2
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Caen have won 2, Dunkerque have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Caen 0-2 Dunkerque.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 31%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Caen and 38% for Dunkerque.
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dunkerque in 31%; Caen have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Caen's recent matches and 52% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Caen's recent games and 38% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Caen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Caen 0-2 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.91 xG and Dunkerque 1.22 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Caen fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.75 / defence 1.05 against Dunkerque attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 28% | Draw 29% | Dunkerque 43%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 49%, Dunkerque 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dunkerque's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.24 PPG, Dunkerque 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.